Friday, February 18, 2011

Evidence of the Straightening S-Curve in Recent Events?

One of the trends in society that has been well-documented in recent decades that has been associated with the spread of information technology is the straightening of the s-curve. This refers to the graph that shows the the number of users of a technology on the y-axis and time on the x-axis. When electronic information technologies were first available, these graphs were elongated horizontally which illustrates the long time necessary for the technologies to reach deep penetration into the consumer market. As technologies matured, the time necessary for a technology to reach large number of users has shortened, resulting in the s-curves being straighter.

This week, I heard an interview with journalist Christiane Amanpourin which she suggested the recent political changes in Egypt which took days from beginning to end would have taken years just a few decades ago. (OK, I admit the interview was on Comedy Central's Colbert Report, but still, she made the point.) Perhaps we are beginning to see the long-predicted democratization of world politics because of access to information networks.


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